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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.