Pitches, Bowling Tools and Back-ups β The Areas Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost
Just 48 hours to go.
England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.
Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.
It's tough to make runs, isn't it?
Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.
A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".
Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.
Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.
Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.
Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.
A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.
An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.
Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.
Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test match cricket is about solving problems.
When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.
If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.
Whatβs happening with the Australia seamers?
On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.
Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.
Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.
Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.
Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.
When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.
In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.
Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.
The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.
On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.
On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong β England should take heed.
Tough at the top
Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?
Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.
Not anymore.
Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.
The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.
Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.
His average rises when the bowling gets faster.
By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.
After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.
Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.
It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.
Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.
Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.
In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.
Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.
Spin war
Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger β spin bowling.
Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.
Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.
It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.
In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.
Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.
Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?
It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.
During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.
Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.
Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.
Right place, right time?
England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.
The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.
In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.
The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.
Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.
On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.
Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca β site of past English struggles β but the modern Perth Stadium.
It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.
Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.
The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.
Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.
Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.
The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.
Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game β against India the previous year.
Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.
England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.
The issue in {day-night matches|
