How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.