Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
